FT · FRANCE: Ligue 1 · Friday, 21 August 2026
Marseille 4–0 StrasbourgMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 21 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Marseille at 45%, draw at 25%, Strasbourg at 30%. The match ended 4-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Marseille.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Marseille win
45%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Strasbourg win
30%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.73 – 1.39
Total 3.12
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+0.9 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 70%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost