FT · FRANCE: Ligue 1 · Friday, 21 August 2026
Marseille 4–0 StrasbourgMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 21 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Marseille or draw at 70%. Bawler had Marseille at 45%, the draw at 25% and Strasbourg at 30%. The match finished 4–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Marseille win
45%
Result
Draw
25%
Strasbourg win
30%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.4
Total 3.1
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 0.2
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Medium confidence
Marseille or draw
Pre-match: 70%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.