FT · FRANCE: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Troyes 0–0 Paris FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 22 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Troyes at 35%, draw at 27%, Paris FC at 38%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Paris FC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Troyes win
35%
Draw
27%
Actual ✓
FC win
38%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.38 – 1.43
Total 2.81
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won