FT · FRANCE: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Troyes 0–0 Paris FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Paris FC or draw at 65%. Bawler had Troyes at 35%, the draw at 27% and Paris FC at 38%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Troyes win
35%
Draw
27%
Result
Paris FC win
38%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.4
Total 2.8
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.4 – 1.8
From the match itself
The match produced 2.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.