FT · FRANCE: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Paris FC 3–0 NiceMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 30 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Paris FC at 49%, draw at 25%, Nice at 26%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Paris FC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
49%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Nice win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.78 – 1.25
Total 3.03
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (-0.0 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.0 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 36%
✗ Lost