FT · France: Ligue 1 · Friday, 11 September 2026
Stade Rennais 1–0 MarseilleMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 11 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Stade Rennais at 43%, draw at 24%, Marseille at 33%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Stade Rennais.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Rennais win
43%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
Marseille win
33%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.78 – 1.54
Total 3.32
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-2.3 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.3 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Rennais defend a precarious fifth-place perch at home while Marseille hunt fourth and Champions League qualification, yet the xG gap of just 0.24 points to Over 1.5 Goals as the high-confidence forecast at 86%."