What we expect
In plain English
Lille should get at least a draw here. The model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Le Havre AC, and they have won three of the last five between them. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Lille or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Lille vs Le Havre AC?
Bawler's model rates this match: Lille are favoured (57% win probability vs 19% for Le Havre AC, 24% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Lille vs Le Havre AC?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Lille 1-1 Le Havre AC (11.5% probability). Expected total goals: 2.76.
How does Bawler predict Lille vs Le Havre AC?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Lille 57%, the draw 24% and Le Havre AC 19%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Le Havre AC?
BTTS: Yes (51% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.82 and away expected goals 0.94.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Lille vs Le Havre AC?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.76. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).