FT · France: Ligue 1 · Friday, 30 October 2026
Le Havre AC 1–5 Paris Saint-GermainMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 30 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Paris Saint-Germain to win at 64%. Bawler had Le Havre AC at 15%, the draw at 20% and Paris Saint-Germain at 64%. The match finished 1–5.
Pre-match probability vs result
Le Havre AC win
15%
Draw
20%
Paris Saint-Germain win
64%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.0 – 2.2
Total 3.2
Actual
1 – 5
Total 6 (+2.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 3.1
From the match itself
The match produced 2.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Paris Saint-Germain to win
Pre-match: 64%
Landed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 38%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Paris Saint-Germain's away victory is the high-confidence forecast, backed by a decisive 1.21 xG advantage and a 64% win probability that reflects their superior attacking threat led by winger Dembélé."