FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Le Havre AC 0–0 AngersMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Le Havre AC at 48%, draw at 27%, Angers at 25%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Le Havre AC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
AC win
48%
Draw
27%
Actual ✓
Angers win
25%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.51 – 1.03
Total 2.54
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.5 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.5 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Le Havre's 0.48 expected-goals advantage and 48% win probability make 1X the model's high-confidence call at 75%, reflecting the hosts' superior chance creation despite both sides' modest attacking output."