FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Le Havre AC 1–3 AJ AuxerreMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Le Havre AC or draw at 71%. Bawler had Le Havre AC at 44%, the draw at 27% and AJ Auxerre at 29%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Le Havre AC win
44%
Draw
27%
AJ Auxerre win
29%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.2
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 2.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.