Bawler's model rates this match: KV Kortrijk are favoured (41% win probability vs 32% for Waasland-Beveren, 27% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is KV Kortrijk 1-1 Waasland-Beveren (13.0% probability). Expected total goals: 2.69.
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives KV Kortrijk 41%, the draw 27% and Waasland-Beveren 32%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
BTTS: Yes (55% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.44 and away expected goals 1.25.
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.69. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).