Waasland-Beveren 3–0 OH LeuvenMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 06 September 2026

3–0

Waasland-Beveren win

OH Leuven

> 🧠 Model verdict

✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Waasland-Beveren at 39%, draw at 27%, OH Leuven at 34%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Waasland-Beveren.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Waasland-Beveren win

39%

Actual ✓

Draw

27%

Leuven win

34%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.42 – 1.32

Total 2.74

Actual

3 – 0

Total 3 (+0.3 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 76%

✓ Won

Medium confidence

Over 2.5 Goals

Pre-match: 51%

✓ Won

Outside shot

Draw

Pre-match: 27%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 76% forecast probability, driven by a combined expected-goals total of 2.74 that heavily favors a multi-goal affair."

> More from Bawler