FT · Belgium: Pro League · Friday, 09 October 2026

Waasland-Beveren 1–3 Lommel SKMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 09 October 2026

Waasland-Beveren
1–3
Lommel SK win
Lommel SK

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Waasland-Beveren or draw at 68%. Bawler had Waasland-Beveren at 38%, the draw at 29% and Lommel SK at 33%. The match finished 1–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

Waasland-Beveren win
38%
Draw
29%
Lommel SK win
33%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.3 – 1.1
Total 2.4
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 1.5
From the match itself

The match produced 1.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 69%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 22%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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