KV Kortrijk 1–0 Waasland-BeverenMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026

1–0

KV Kortrijk win

Waasland-Beveren

> 🧠 Model verdict

✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had KV Kortrijk at 35%, draw at 27%, Waasland-Beveren at 39%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-0. The model's headline call was Waasland-Beveren to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Kortrijk win

35%

Actual ✓

Draw

27%

Waasland-Beveren win

39%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.38 – 1.46

Total 2.84

Actual

1 – 0

Total 1 (-1.8 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 78%

✗ Lost

Medium confidence

Over 2.5 Goals

Pre-match: 54%

✗ Lost

Outside shot

Draw

Pre-match: 27%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 75% because both sides generate comparable attacking threat—Kortrijk 1.42 xG and Beveren 1.30 xG—leaving little defensive margin in a fixture with tight win probabilities across all outcomes."

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