Waasland-Beveren 2–0 Sint-TruidenseMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026

2–0

Waasland-Beveren win

Sint-Truidense

> 🧠 Model verdict

✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Waasland-Beveren at 28%, draw at 26%, Sint-Truidense at 47%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-0. The model's headline call was Sint-Truidense to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Waasland-Beveren win

28%

Actual ✓

Draw

26%

Sint-Truidense win

47%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.24 – 1.67

Total 2.90

Actual

2 – 0

Total 2 (-0.9 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 79%

✓ Won

Medium confidence

Pre-match: 72%

✗ Lost

Outside shot

Over 3.5 Goals

Pre-match: 33%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Sint-Truidense's 0.43 xG advantage and 47% win probability set up Over 1.5 Goals as the high-confidence forecast at 79%, with the away side expected to dictate a more open contest than Waasland-Beveren can contain."

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