Juventus vs AC Milan prediction — Serie A · Sun 6 Sept · 19:45 UK

Serie A · Sun 6 Sept · 19:45 UK
Juventus 50Draw 25AC Milan 25
Our call before kickoff
75%
Juventus or draw
Landed
2.9
Goals expected
Full time
Final 1–1
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
61%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
56%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
54%

How it finished

Juventus and AC Milan drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Juventus at 50% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 25%. It forecast 2.9 goals; only 2 were scored. Juventus had 14 shots (5 on target) to AC Milan's 3 (1), with 49% of the ball against 51%. Expected goals finished 1.6 to 0.1.

JuventusFull-time statsAC Milan
49%Possession51%
1.6Expected goals (xG)0.1
14Shots3
5Shots on target1
6Shots inside box1
3Big chances0
7Corners1
0Saves4
10Fouls11
5Offsides1
1Yellow cards3
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callJuventus or draw 75%Draw (25% called)
Total goals2.92
Both teams to score56%Yes
Graded pickOver 1.5 goals 78%Landed
Second pickOver 2.5 goals 54%Missed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

JuventusAC Milan
1.7
Goals+0.6
1.2
14.7
Shots+6.3
8.3
4.8
On target+2.0
2.7
5.6
Corners+2.5
3.1
JuventusAC Milan
0.4
Goals+0.1
0.3
6.7
Shots+3.2
3.5
2.1
On target+1.0
1.1
2.6
Corners+1.2
1.4
JuventusAC Milan
1.3
Goals+0.4
0.8
8.0
Shots+3.2
4.8
2.7
On target+1.0
1.7
3.0
Corners+1.3
1.6

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Juventus to score82%
Over 1.5 goals78%
AC Milan to score68%
Under 3.5 goals68%

First half — what we expected

Juventus
43%
to score before half-time
AC Milan
32%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 61%

JuventusAC Milan
6.71st-half shots3.5
2.11st-half shots on target1.1
2.61st-half corners1.4

First-half chances

60%Chance of 6+ shots19%
36%Chance of 8+ shots<10%
84%Chance of 1+ shots on target61%
34%Chance of 3+ shots on target12%
68%Chance of 2+ corners40%
28%Chance of 4+ corners<10%

How the match splits

1st half2nd half
Shots · Juventus6.78.0
Shots · AC Milan3.54.8
Shots on target · Juventus2.12.7
Shots on target · AC Milan1.11.7
Corners · Juventus2.63.0
Corners · AC Milan1.41.6
How to read this

First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+0.6 / match
Head-to-head, last 5Juventus 1 · Draws 3 · AC Milan 1
AC Milan in their league tableTop quarter

Head to head

Apr 2026Milan 0–0 Juventus
Oct 2025Juventus 0–0 Milan
Jan 2025Juventus 2–0 Milan
Jan 2025Juventus 1–2 Milan
Nov 2024Milan 0–0 Juventus
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Juventus vs AC Milan?

Juventus and AC Milan drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Juventus at 50% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 25%. It forecast 2.9 goals; only 2 were scored. Juventus had 14 shots (5 on target) to AC Milan's 3 (1), with 49% of the ball against 51%. Expected goals finished 1.6 to 0.1.

What was the final score in Juventus vs AC Milan?

Juventus 1–1 AC Milan, played on 06 Sept 2026 in the Italy: Serie A. Bawler's model had gone into it with Juventus 50%, the draw 25% and AC Milan 25%.

What were the stats in Juventus vs AC Milan?

Full-time: Possession 49%–51%, Expected goals (xG) 1.6–0.1, Shots 14–3, Shots on target 5–1, Shots inside box 6–1, Big chances 3–0, Corners 7–1, Saves 0–4, Fouls 10–11, Offsides 5–1, Yellow cards 1–3.

Did both teams score in Juventus vs AC Milan?

Yes — both Juventus and AC Milan scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Juventus vs AC Milan right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Juventus or draw 75%, it finished Draw (25% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 56%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 78%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 54%, it finished Missed.

Around this fixture

Serie A table →
All fixtures & results →Juventus form →AC Milan form →