FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Juventus 2–0 ParmaMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Juventus to win at 70%. Bawler had Juventus at 70%, the draw at 19% and Parma at 10%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Juventus win
70%
Result
Draw
19%
Parma win
10%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 0.7
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 0.2
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Juventus to win
Pre-match: 70%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Juventus chases Champions League qualification at home against a mid-table Parma with nothing to play for, and the 1.47 expected-goals advantage underpins a Home Win prediction at 70%."