FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Juventus 1–1 AC MilanMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 06 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Juventus at 50%, draw at 25%, AC Milan at 25%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Juventus to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Juventus win
50%
Draw
25%
Actual ✓
Milan win
25%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.71 – 1.15
Total 2.86
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Away Win
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Juventus chases Champions League qualification at home while Milan defends a title push six points clear, yet Juventus's 0.57 xG advantage and Vlahović's 30% shot creation make Over 1.5 Goals the model's 80% forecast."