FT · ITALY: Serie A · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Frosinone 0–1 JuventusMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Juventus or draw at 78%. Bawler had Frosinone at 22%, the draw at 25% and Juventus at 53%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Frosinone win
22%
Draw
25%
Juventus win
53%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.0 – 1.7
Total 2.8
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.4 – 2.0
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Juventus or draw
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 30%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.