FT · ITALY: Serie A · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Frosinone 0–1 JuventusMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 23 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Frosinone at 22%, draw at 25%, Juventus at 53%. The match ended 0-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Juventus.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Frosinone win
22%
Draw
25%
Juventus win
53%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.02 – 1.73
Total 2.75
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
X2
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 30%
✗ Lost