FT · ITALY: Serie A · Friday, 28 August 2026
AC Milan 2–0 VeneziaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 28 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had AC Milan at 54%, draw at 25%, Venezia at 21%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward AC Milan.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Milan win
54%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Venezia win
21%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.76 – 1.00
Total 2.76
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-0.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 30%
✗ Lost