Match prediction·USA: MLS·Sunday 16 Aug, 00:30 UTC

Houston Dynamo FC vs LA Galaxy

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
43.6% home30.8% draw25.6% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Houston Dynamo FCstepLA Galaxy
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

Houston Dynamo average 5.6 corners per game at home this season (22 competitive matches). LA Galaxy average 5.1 corners per game away from home this season (21 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
82%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Over 3.5 goals
24%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Houston Dynamo vs LA Galaxy — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 24 May 2026, Houston Dynamo have won 0, LA Galaxy have won 0, with 1 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
24 May 2026LA Galaxy 11 Houston DynamoUSA: MLS

The model's verdict for this fixture: Houston Dynamo 44% · draw 31% · LA Galaxy 26%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.