FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 02 August 2026
LA Galaxy 0–0 FC DallasMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 02 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had LA Galaxy at 40%, draw at 31%, FC Dallas at 30%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was LA Galaxy to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Galaxy win
40%
Draw
31%
Actual ✓
Dallas win
30%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.54 – 1.30
Total 2.85
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 22%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals at 75% probability backs a combined 2.85 xG projection, with Galaxy creator Riqui Puig driving 22% of his side's attacking threat at home."