FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 02 August 2026
Sporting Kansas City 0–2 Houston Dynamo FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 02 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Sporting Kansas City at 30%, draw at 31%, Houston Dynamo FC at 39%. The match ended 0-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Houston Dynamo FC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
30%
Draw
31%
FC win
39%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.31 – 1.50
Total 2.81
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-0.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 22%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 74% probability because both sides project evenly with combined xG of 2.81, creating consistent attacking threat despite Houston's marginal 39% win edge."