Hibernian vs Heart of Midlothian prediction — Scottish Prem · Thu 3 Sept · 19:45 UK

Scottish Prem · Thu 3 Sept · 19:45 UK
Hibernian 52Draw 25Heart of Midlothian 23
The call
52%
Hibernian to win
2.8
Goals expected
13d 11hUntil lineups lock

Every market the model rates

Hibernian or draw77%
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals53%
BTTS54%
Hibernian win to nil28%
Heart of Midlothian or draw48%
Under 3.5 goals69%
Correct score 1–111%

Model inputs

Home form (last 6)L L W W D W
Expected goals gap (xG)+0.7 / match
Head-to-head, last 5HIB 2 · D 0 · HEA 3
Opponent strength indexUpper mid

Head to head

Apr 2026Hibernian 1–2 Heart of Midlothian
Feb 2026Heart of Midlothian 1–0 Hibernian
Dec 2025Hibernian 3–2 Heart of Midlothian
Oct 2025Heart of Midlothian 1–0 Hibernian
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Common questions

Who will win Hibernian vs Heart of Midlothian?

Bawler's model rates this match: Hibernian are favoured (52% win probability vs 23% for Heart of Midlothian, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Hibernian vs Heart of Midlothian?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Hibernian 1-1 Heart of Midlothian (11.9% probability). Expected total goals: 2.80.

How does Bawler predict Hibernian vs Heart of Midlothian?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Hibernian 52%, the draw 25% and Heart of Midlothian 23%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Hibernian vs Heart of Midlothian?

BTTS: Yes (54% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.73 and away expected goals 1.07.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Hibernian vs Heart of Midlothian?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.80. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

Premiership table →
All fixtures & results →Hibernian form →Heart of Midlothian form →