FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Hibernian 1–1 AberdeenMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Hibernian at 61%, draw at 23%, Aberdeen at 16%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Hibernian to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Hibernian win
61%
Draw
23%
Actual ✓
Aberdeen win
16%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.93 – 0.91
Total 2.83
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 61%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 32%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Hibernian's dominant 0.94 expected-goals advantage fuels the 1X prediction at 82% confidence, with the hosts' 1.88 xG output signalling control at home."