FT · SCOTLAND: Premiership · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Dundee 1–2 HibernianMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 30 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Dundee at 27%, draw at 27%, Hibernian at 47%. The match ended 1-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Hibernian.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Dundee win
27%
Draw
27%
Hibernian win
47%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.13 – 1.58
Total 2.72
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
X2
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost