FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Heart of Midlothian 2–1 DundeeMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 06 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Heart of Midlothian at 65%, draw at 21%, Dundee at 14%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Heart of Midlothian.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Midlothian win
65%
Actual ✓
Draw
21%
Dundee win
14%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.07 – 0.84
Total 2.92
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 65%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 33%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Heart of Midlothian's home win forecast rests on a dominant 1.23 expected-goals advantage, with the model projecting 2.08 xG against Dundee's 0.84."