FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Thursday, 03 September 2026
Hibernian 1–3 Heart of MidlothianMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 03 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Hibernian at 40%, draw at 27%, Heart of Midlothian at 33%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-3. The model's headline call was Hibernian to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Hibernian win
40%
Draw
27%
Midlothian win
33%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.45 – 1.29
Total 2.74
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.3 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.3 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 76% confidence because Hibernian's 1.45 xG and Heart of Midlothian's 1.29 xG combine for 2.74 total expected shots on target, pushing both sides toward multi-goal output."