Heart of Midlothian beat St Mirren 5–0. Heart of Midlothian had 18 shots (6 on target) to St Mirren's 8 (1), with 49% of the ball against 51%. Expected goals finished 3.4 to 0.7.
The grey number is their average over the last six.
How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.
Heart of Midlothian beat St Mirren 5–0. Heart of Midlothian had 18 shots (6 on target) to St Mirren's 8 (1), with 49% of the ball against 51%. Expected goals finished 3.4 to 0.7.
Heart of Midlothian 5–0 St Mirren, played on 10 Oct 2026 in the Scotland: Scottish Prem. Bawler's model had gone into it with Heart of Midlothian 60%, the draw 24% and St Mirren 16%.
Full-time: Possession 49%–51%, Expected goals (xG) 3.4–0.7, Shots 18–8, Shots on target 6–1, Shots inside box 14–4, Big chances 4–1, Corners 6–2, Saves 1–1, Fouls 16–18, Offsides 3–1, Yellow cards 2–3.
No. It finished 5–0, so St Mirren failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 49% before kickoff.