What we expect
In plain English
Heart of Midlothian are the model's pick, without being a certainty. They have won four of their last six, and the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than St Mirren. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Heart of Midlothian to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Heart of Midlothian vs St Mirren?
Bawler's model rates this match: Heart of Midlothian are favoured (62% win probability vs 16% for St Mirren, 23% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Heart of Midlothian vs St Mirren?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Heart of Midlothian 1-0 St Mirren (11.5% probability). Expected total goals: 2.82.
How does Bawler predict Heart of Midlothian vs St Mirren?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Heart of Midlothian 62%, the draw 23% and St Mirren 16%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Heart of Midlothian vs St Mirren?
BTTS: No (50% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 1.95 and away expected goals 0.87.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Heart of Midlothian vs St Mirren?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.82. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).