FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Kilmarnock 1–1 Heart of MidlothianMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Kilmarnock at 22%, draw at 23%, Heart of Midlothian at 55%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Heart of Midlothian to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Kilmarnock win
22%
Draw
23%
Actual ✓
Midlothian win
55%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.17 – 1.97
Total 3.15
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-1.1 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 82%, as Hearts' 1.87 xG significantly outpaces Kilmarnock's 1.25 in a fixture primed for multiple chances."