FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Heart of Midlothian 2–1 St JohnstoneMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 29 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Heart of Midlothian at 66%, draw at 20%, St Johnstone at 14%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Heart of Midlothian.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Midlothian win
66%
Actual ✓
Draw
20%
Johnstone win
14%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.17 – 0.90
Total 3.06
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (-0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 66%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 37%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Heart of Midlothian's home win forecast rests on a dominant 1.27 expected-goals advantage and 66% win probability against an opponent managing just 0.90 xG."