FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Sunday, 06 September 2026
St Johnstone 2–1 HibernianMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 06 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had St Johnstone at 27%, draw at 26%, Hibernian at 47%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-1. The model's headline call was Hibernian to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Johnstone win
27%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Hibernian win
47%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.21 – 1.65
Total 2.85
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 78%, driven by Hibernian's 0.44 xG advantage and 47% win probability that should generate attacking pressure throughout."