FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Wednesday, 26 August 2026

Rapid Vienna 2–2 Heart of MidlothianMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 26 August 2026

> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Rapid Vienna at 50%, draw at 25%, Heart of Midlothian at 25%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Rapid Vienna to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Vienna win
50%
Draw
25%
Actual ✓
Midlothian win
25%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.77 – 1.21
Total 2.98
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.0 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 35%
✓ Won

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