Heerenveen vs Telstar prediction — Eredivisie · Sun 13 Sept · 13:30 UK

Eredivisie · Sun 13 Sept · 13:30 UK
Heerenveen 52Draw 23Telstar 25
Our call before kickoff
75%
Heerenveen or draw
Landed
3.4
Goals expected
Full time
Final 0–0
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
75%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
65%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
66%

How it finished

Heerenveen and Telstar drew 0–0. Bawler's model favoured Heerenveen at 52% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 23%. It forecast 3.4 goals; nobody scored. Heerenveen had 23 shots (6 on target) to Telstar's 12 (2), with 63% of the ball against 37%. Expected goals finished 1.5 to 0.7.

HeerenveenFull-time statsTelstar
63%Possession37%
1.5Expected goals (xG)0.7
23Shots12
6Shots on target2
10Shots inside box5
2Big chances0
8Corners6
2Saves6
13Fouls8
0Offsides0
2Yellow cards0
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callHeerenveen or draw 75%Draw (23% called)
Total goals3.40
Both teams to score65%No
Graded pickOver 1.5 goals 85%Missed
Second pickHeerenveen to win 52%Missed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

HeerenveenTelstar
2.0
Goals+0.7
1.4
24.5
Shots+10.4
14.1
7.7
On target+4.8
2.9
6.1
Corners+1.3
4.7
HeerenveenTelstar
0.6
Goals+0.2
0.4
11.5
Shots+5.4
6.1
3.6
On target+2.3
1.3
2.8
Corners+0.6
2.2
HeerenveenTelstar
1.4
Goals+0.5
1.0
13.0
Shots+5.0
7.9
4.1
On target+2.5
1.7
3.2
Corners+0.7
2.5

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Heerenveen to score87%
Over 1.5 goals85%
Telstar to score74%
Over 2.5 goals66%

First half — what we expected

Heerenveen
59%
to score before half-time
Telstar
39%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 75%

HeerenveenTelstar
11.51st-half shots6.1
3.61st-half shots on target1.3
2.81st-half corners2.2

First-half chances

56%Chance of 11+ shots<10%
38%Chance of 13+ shots<10%
66%Chance of 3+ shots on target15%
30%Chance of 5+ shots on target<10%
72%Chance of 2+ corners60%
32%Chance of 4+ corners21%

How the match splits

1st half2nd half
Shots · Heerenveen11.513.0
Shots · Telstar6.17.9
Shots on target · Heerenveen3.64.1
Shots on target · Telstar1.31.7
Corners · Heerenveen2.83.2
Corners · Telstar2.22.5
How to read this

First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+0.7 / match
Telstar in their league tableBottom quarter

Head to head

Mar 2026SC Heerenveen 3–0 Telstar
Oct 2025Telstar 2–3 SC Heerenveen
Jan 2016Telstar 0–4 SC Heerenveen
Jul 2014SC Heerenveen 3–0 Telstar
Oct 2011Telstar 1–5 SC Heerenveen
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Heerenveen vs Telstar?

Heerenveen and Telstar drew 0–0. Bawler's model favoured Heerenveen at 52% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 23%. It forecast 3.4 goals; nobody scored. Heerenveen had 23 shots (6 on target) to Telstar's 12 (2), with 63% of the ball against 37%. Expected goals finished 1.5 to 0.7.

What was the final score in Heerenveen vs Telstar?

Heerenveen 0–0 Telstar, played on 13 Sept 2026 in the Netherlands: Eredivisie. Bawler's model had gone into it with Heerenveen 52%, the draw 23% and Telstar 25%.

What were the stats in Heerenveen vs Telstar?

Full-time: Possession 63%–37%, Expected goals (xG) 1.5–0.7, Shots 23–12, Shots on target 6–2, Shots inside box 10–5, Big chances 2–0, Corners 8–6, Saves 2–6, Fouls 13–8, Offsides 0–0, Yellow cards 2–0.

Did both teams score in Heerenveen vs Telstar?

No. It finished 0–0, so Heerenveen failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 65% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Heerenveen vs Telstar right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Heerenveen or draw 75%, it finished Draw (23% called); Total goals — we said 3.4, it finished 0; Both teams to score — we said 65%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 85%, it finished Missed; Second pick — we said Heerenveen to win 52%, it finished Missed.

Around this fixture

Eredivisie table →
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