Heerenveen and Telstar drew 0–0. Bawler's model favoured Heerenveen at 52% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 23%. It forecast 3.4 goals; nobody scored. Heerenveen had 23 shots (6 on target) to Telstar's 12 (2), with 63% of the ball against 37%. Expected goals finished 1.5 to 0.7.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 75%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Heerenveen and Telstar drew 0–0. Bawler's model favoured Heerenveen at 52% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 23%. It forecast 3.4 goals; nobody scored. Heerenveen had 23 shots (6 on target) to Telstar's 12 (2), with 63% of the ball against 37%. Expected goals finished 1.5 to 0.7.
Heerenveen 0–0 Telstar, played on 13 Sept 2026 in the Netherlands: Eredivisie. Bawler's model had gone into it with Heerenveen 52%, the draw 23% and Telstar 25%.
Full-time: Possession 63%–37%, Expected goals (xG) 1.5–0.7, Shots 23–12, Shots on target 6–2, Shots inside box 10–5, Big chances 2–0, Corners 8–6, Saves 2–6, Fouls 13–8, Offsides 0–0, Yellow cards 2–0.
No. It finished 0–0, so Heerenveen failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 65% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Heerenveen or draw 75%, it finished Draw (23% called); Total goals — we said 3.4, it finished 0; Both teams to score — we said 65%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 85%, it finished Missed; Second pick — we said Heerenveen to win 52%, it finished Missed.