FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Telstar 2–2 ADO Den HaagMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Telstar or draw at 76%. Bawler had Telstar at 52%, the draw at 24% and ADO Den Haag at 24%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Telstar win
52%
Draw
24%
Result
ADO Den Haag win
24%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.2
Total 3.0
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.9 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Medium confidence
Telstar to win
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 35%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.