FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Friday, 09 October 2026
PSV Eindhoven 2–0 HeerenveenMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 09 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was PSV Eindhoven to win at 68%. Bawler had PSV Eindhoven at 68%, the draw at 18% and Heerenveen at 14%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
PSV Eindhoven win
68%
Result
Draw
18%
Heerenveen win
14%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.6 – 1.1
Total 3.7
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
PSV Eindhoven to win
Pre-match: 68%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.