What we expect · full match
How to read this
The small bars under each number are that side’s last six matches, home and away, against opponents of mixed strength, oldest on the left; the dashed line is the number we expect. Our forecast is for this opponent at this ground, so a favourite’s recent numbers often sit below it and an underdog’s above it.
Recent averages · last 6 matches
What each side has actually done lately, home and away — a record, not a forecast.
What we expect
In plain English
Heerenveen are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Heerenveen or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Heerenveen · last 6
Excelsior · last 6
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 77%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's last six first halves.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
Bawler's model rates this match: Heerenveen are favoured (47% win probability vs 28% for Excelsior, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Heerenveen 1-1 Excelsior (11.3% probability). Expected total goals: 3.1.
How does Bawler predict Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Heerenveen 47%, the draw 25% and Excelsior 28%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
BTTS: Yes (61% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.76 and away expected goals 1.32.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.1. The lean is A slight lean to over 2.5.