FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Heerenveen 0–0 TelstarMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 13 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Heerenveen at 52%, draw at 23%, Telstar at 25%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Heerenveen to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Heerenveen win
52%
Draw
23%
Actual ✓
Telstar win
25%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.03 – 1.36
Total 3.40
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-3.4 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 3.4 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 85%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast as Heerenveen's 0.67 expected-goals advantage suggests they will dominate a low-block Telstar side short on attacking thrust."