What we expect
In plain English
Feyenoord Rotterdam are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than AZ Alkmaar, and AZ Alkmaar have not beaten them in their last five meetings. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
What would change the call
Feyenoord Rotterdam or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Feyenoord Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Bawler's model rates this match: Feyenoord Rotterdam are favoured (50% win probability vs 26% for AZ Alkmaar, 23% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Feyenoord Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Feyenoord Rotterdam 1-1 AZ Alkmaar (10.4% probability). Expected total goals: 3.28.
How does Bawler predict Feyenoord Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Feyenoord Rotterdam 50%, the draw 23% and AZ Alkmaar 26%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
BTTS: Yes (63% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.93 and away expected goals 1.35.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Feyenoord Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.28. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).