FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 22 October 2026
Ararat-Armenia 0–4 AZ AlkmaarMatch recap · Thursday, 22 October 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
Ararat-Armenia win
20%
Draw
24%
AZ Alkmaar win
56%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.9
Total 3.0
Actual
0 – 4
Total 4 (+1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.3 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.