FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 15 October 2026
AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Hapoel Be'erMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AZ Alkmaar or draw at 79%. Bawler had AZ Alkmaar at 55%, the draw at 24% and Hapoel Be'er at 21%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
AZ Alkmaar win
55%
Result
Draw
24%
Hapoel Be'er win
21%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.1
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
AZ Alkmaar to win
Pre-match: 55%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.