FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Feyenoord Rotterdam 5–0 FC UtrechtMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Feyenoord Rotterdam at 59%, draw at 22%, FC Utrecht at 19%. The match ended 5-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Feyenoord Rotterdam.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Rotterdam win
59%
Actual ✓
Draw
22%
Utrecht win
19%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.13 – 1.14
Total 3.26
Actual
5 – 0
Total 5 (+1.7 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 82% forecast confidence, anchored by Feyenoord's 1.99 xG and a 0.87 xG advantage that tilts the match decisively toward an open game."