FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 18 October 2026
SC Cambuur 2–2 AZ AlkmaarMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was AZ Alkmaar to win at 63%. Bawler had SC Cambuur at 17%, the draw at 20% and AZ Alkmaar at 63%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
SC Cambuur win
17%
Draw
20%
Result
AZ Alkmaar win
63%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 2.3
Total 3.5
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 3.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
AZ Alkmaar to win
Pre-match: 63%
Missed
Outside shot
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 37%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.