FT · Europe: Champions League · Wednesday, 21 October 2026
Real Betis 1–0 Feyenoord RotterdamMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 21 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Real Betis or draw at 73%. Bawler had Real Betis at 50%, the draw at 23% and Feyenoord Rotterdam at 27%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Real Betis win
50%
Result
Draw
23%
Feyenoord Rotterdam win
27%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.4
Total 3.3
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.0 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 2.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Missed
Medium confidence
Real Betis to win
Pre-match: 50%
Landed
Outside shot
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 36%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast, with Betis generating 0.57 more expected goals than Feyenoord and creator Isco leading their attacking load."