Match prediction·USA: MLS·Wednesday 19 Aug, 23:30 UTC

FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
44.8% home25.2% draw29.9% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
FC CincinnatistepNew York City FC
1.81Base xG · rolling 26-match1.43
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.81Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.43

Cincinnati average 4.6 corners per game at home this season (28 competitive matches). New York City average 3.4 corners per game away from home this season (26 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4
6
4
2
1
1
7
10
7
3
1
2
6
9
7
3
1
3
4
6
4
2
1
4
2
3
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

More predictions for these teams

FC Cincinnati fixtures & form →New York City FC fixtures & form →

Cincinnati vs New York City — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Cincinnati and New York City — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Cincinnati 45% · draw 25% · New York City 30%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

Cincinnati predictions & form →New York City predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.