FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Orlando City SC 1–1 FC CincinnatiMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 16 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Orlando City SC at 39%, draw at 26%, FC Cincinnati at 35%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Orlando City SC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
SC win
39%
Draw
26%
Actual ✓
Cincinnati win
35%
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 85%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Outside shot
BTTS No
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost