FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 23 August 2026
FC Cincinnati 1–1 Seattle Sounders FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Cincinnati or draw at 65%. Bawler had FC Cincinnati at 41%, the draw at 25% and Seattle Sounders FC at 35%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Cincinnati win
41%
Draw
25%
Result
Seattle Sounders FC win
35%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.5
Total 3.2
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 1.2 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.