FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 23 August 2026
FC Cincinnati 1–1 Seattle Sounders FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 23 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had FC Cincinnati at 41%, draw at 25%, Seattle Sounders FC at 35%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was FC Cincinnati to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Cincinnati win
41%
Draw
25%
Actual ✓
FC win
35%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.66 – 1.51
Total 3.17
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-1.2 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.2 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 83%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won