What we expect
In plain English
FC Cincinnati are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. They have won three of the last five between them. Expect goals: the model sees around four.
What would change the call
FC Cincinnati or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution?
Bawler's model rates this match: FC Cincinnati are favoured (41% win probability vs 36% for New England Revolution, 23% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is FC Cincinnati 1-1 New England Revolution (9.6% probability). Expected total goals: 3.54.
How does Bawler predict FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives FC Cincinnati 41%, the draw 23% and New England Revolution 36%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution?
BTTS: Yes (69% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.84 and away expected goals 1.70.
Over or under 2.5 goals in FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.54. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).