FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 20 September 2026
New England Revolution 4–2 Orlando City SCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had New England Revolution at 52%, draw at 22%, Orlando City SC at 26%. The match ended 4-2 — confirming the model's lean toward New England Revolution.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Revolution win
52%
Actual ✓
Draw
22%
SC win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.09 – 1.44
Total 3.53
Actual
4 – 2
Total 6 (+2.5 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.5 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 87%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 84%, backed by New England's 0.43 xG advantage and combined attacking forecast of 3.32 expected goals."