FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 15 October 2026
FC Cincinnati 2–3 New England RevolutionMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was FC Cincinnati or draw at 66%. Bawler had FC Cincinnati at 42%, the draw at 23% and New England Revolution at 34%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Cincinnati win
42%
Draw
23%
New England Revolution win
34%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.7
Total 3.5
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 1.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.5 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 87%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.