FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 18 October 2026
FC Cincinnati 0–2 Columbus CrewMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was FC Cincinnati or draw at 64%. Bawler had FC Cincinnati at 40%, the draw at 24% and Columbus Crew at 36%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Cincinnati win
40%
Draw
24%
Columbus Crew win
36%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.6
Total 3.4
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−1.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.2 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.4 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.