FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 10 September 2026
D.C. United 2–1 Columbus CrewMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 10 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had D.C. United at 35%, draw at 27%, Columbus Crew at 38%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-1. The model's headline call was Columbus Crew to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
United win
35%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
Crew win
38%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.33 – 1.41
Total 2.74
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals carries 76% forecast confidence as both sides project nearly identical attacking threat at 1.33 and 1.41 xG, with Diego Rossi's wing play driving a third of Columbus's chances."